Chernobyl and the Ukraine Crisis

Photo on behalf of the EBRD on Flickr

Since the autumn of 2013 and the protests and demonstrations taking place at Maidan, the Square of Independence in Kiev, the unrest of Ukraine has only increased. Barely had the, by media more than slightly exaggerated, uprisings at Maidan calmed down before the Crimea crisis occurred and these days we are looking at something very similar to a fully fledged civil war going on in eastern Ukraine, and a question to be answered is how this all may affect Chernobyl.

Recent news indicate a fear concerning what would happen in case of a Russian invasion as the nuclear power plants of Ukraine are said to be a highly potential target. On March 25th, the at the time acting minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine, Andriy Deshchytsia*, said that "At present, there is no immediate danger [regarding the nuclear power plants]. However, if the situation aggravates Ukraine may be in need of international assistance to protect these facilities." Further on Deshchytsia said that two possible options for Ukraine remained, as well as two possible options from the outside world of how to act and react: 

"First, there are already political voices in Ukraine calling to resume production of nuclear weapons as the only means to protect ourselves from any outside aggression. From the Ukrainian government's standpoint, this option is not on the table. We remain committed to the NPT as a non-nuclear state."

The second option for Ukraine is to seek collective security. It is less expensive and more effective. We shall explore all possibilities in this regard, starting with our association with the European Union." 

Ukraine got rid of its nuclear warheads twenty years ago and five years later, all of the said was destroyed. About five months have passed since Andriy Deshchytsia made his statement and things haven't exactly been brightening up for Ukraine, but does it really face a Russian invasion? That remains to be seen, but there is no threat concerning the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. One of the most urgent questions at the moment may have been whether money will be taken from the Shelter Project in order to finance the national defense in case of Ukraine getting involved in war but the answer is no: The Shelter Project is mainly financed by EU and the U.S and the funds cannot be extracted, however Ukraine's already limping economical situation may cause the project further delays. Chernobyl itself will of course not be a direct target in case of a Russian invasion, but national resources may be drawn from the Shelter Project in order to support the national defense. The annual amount spent on the Shelter Project and Chernobyl is about 5-7% of the Ukrainian budget.

"Any unrest affects a country's economy, and remediation is not a profitable activity. To carry it out, we need funding from the state budget. The less money we have the less could be done." those are the words of Oleg Nasvit, a nuclear physicist at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kiev. However, the International Monetary Fund has pledged $17 billion in order to keep Ukraine's economy relatively stable over the coming two years and this far there are no signs of withdrawing the Chernobyl budget. It's a project concerning nuclear safety, which exceeds the borders of politics and all current peaceful nuclear activity in Ukraine is under a strict IAEA supervision.



*You may read Andriy Deshchytsia's full statement here

On Hold

Then there's been a few days of silence again. 

This time it has to do with the information I am trying to receive, as I continue trying to follow up the situation concerning the closed Chernobyl Zone and get answer to questions like:

Why the fickleness and sliding doors-inconsistency? Is the fact that some people are let into the Zone and some are not, just a matter or chance or a sign of that there simply are no solid regulations behind the decision of closing up?

What is the purpose of firing experienced guides and replace them with young people who know nothing about the exclusion zone?

And concerning a matter as important as the rest: In the official statement when closing the Zone, the begun construction of the New Safe Confinement was listed amongst the reasons of the decision, and I am also trying to find out the amount of truth behind that. 

Having previously had contact with Anton Usov, Ukrainian Principal Advicer of the EBRD concerning the Shelter matters, I have attempted to contact him again to find out what the current status is. Is the project coming along according to plans?

Mr. Usov will be out of his office for another week, but after that, I hope to be able to tell you more about this.

The end of the ChNPP

It's easy to look past and forget about what's right in front of you. When speaking of Chernobyl and the Nuclear Power Plant, most people tend to think of the disaster. This is of course not a strange thing, rather the opposite, but it still doesn't change the fact that there's the entire rest of the NPP, that maintained production even after the disaster in 1986, and of whose reactors the last one (reactor 3)  was put out of operation as late as in 2000.

Photo from http://chernobyl-international.com

Questions concerning the future of the partly inactive, partly destroyed Nuclear Power Plant of Chernobyl is not something I often encounter - the knowledge of the New Safe Confinement over reactor 4 seem to distract enough to draw attention from the rest of the plant, but as I said, it's still there and in January 2010 the Verkhovna Rada Ukraiyni (Верховна Рада України; The Ukrainian Parliament) finally came to establish the law which decides the future of the ChNPP. 

The plan is divided into four stages, beginning last year and ending in 2065, when the NPP is supposed to have been completely dismantled: 

Between 2010 and 2013, the remaining spent nuclear fuel will be moved from all reactors and temporary storages to a long term storage. This has already begun; the spent nuclear fuel is currently stored in deep water cooling ponds, which is not suitable as a long term containment. Apart from this, the storage facilities at the site are insufficient when it comes to storing all the spent fuel from reactors 1, 2 and 3 and thus there are plans to construct another storage facility.

When the removal procedure is done, the next step is to preserve the reactor facilities, which is scheduled to happen between the years 2013 and 2022. This means the final closing of the reactor facilities and removal of all contaminated goods and equipment. The removal of uncontaminated equipment has already begun in block no. 1.

From 2022 until 2045, experts will be expected to reduce the radioactivity levels of the reactors and the final removal of equipment and clearing of the site is supposed to be completed till 2065. At all, this 55 years process is estimated to cost €314 million (3, 54 billion UAH), and financing this is likely to become a problem for Ukraine so it remains yet to be seen when the dismantling of the Chernobyl NPP can finally be completed.  

The Complexity of Chernobyl; the Zounds of the Zone

Trying to perform research about Chernobyl on a deeper level is not as easy as it might appear, especially not once you have been in the Zone.

Already before I left Sweden for Ukraine and Chernobyl, I experienced certain difficulties in finding the information and answers to my questions that I needed and required to add to the full picture. The first problem was finding out correct data about the average levels of radiation in different parts of the Zone. I had been told that the levels were "almost normal", but why should I believe that? I risked appearing like an anxious idiot, and still wonder how the request of correct information can be mistaken for such a thing. When finally finding some relatively up-to-date numbers, I could only sneer at the previous statement of "almost normal" readings. 

I have learnt that some people tend to follow the trend of mistaking "not lethal" for "almost normal". A one time tourist joining in for a day-trip on a bus  ride arranged by a Kiev hotel may get away with that kind of arrogance, but for those who feel the call to return more than once, greater measures of caution and respect are recommended to be taken. - The radiation isn't only in the air - it's everywhere. 

When I finally entered the Zone, I pretty soon got to see for myself that the levels of radiation naturally vary, depending on where you are, but I also realized the danger of getting used to the numbers displayed on the geiger counter. Us Swedes are great with radiation, inventing measures for Roentgen, Sieverts and so on ,and living in Sweden,  I also receive about 1000 - 4000 μSv/year. The average dose for a person  living in Australia or the U.S is between 1500 - 3000 μSv a year. Compare this with the geiger counter giving you readings of  2, 5 or 14 μSv/hour, you may realize it's not lethal, but it's far from healthy in the long run. The point is that there are no constant numbers, and you should watch out where you're going, rather than believe the numbers someone have published, or for that matter get blinded by the geiger counter, because you will get used to it. Stay aware.

During the expedition, I lost count of how many times I faced contraditions to what I thought I knew by asking "But I thought/heard that..." -The official statements are for the public and for the journalists to provide to the public, but in the Zone, you get to see another view of it all; that's it's by far not so much under control as the public statements want you to believe, and when understanding that the 90 percents of the iceberg are there, you quickly realize that you can only imagine 10 percents of it all.

"Ukraine has finally received enough money to proceed working on the New Safe Confinement (NSC)"

"They keep running into problems. Whilst working, they can suddenly run into heavily radioactive obstacles, and how to remove it raise new problems."

 "Moving the NSC into place will cause vibrations that will stir up radioactive dust. In itself it's a hazard."

 Then what to believe? -We're facing a problem larger than most people imagine, and the controversies outside, contra inside the Zone, doesn't make anything easier: Whilst some are optimistic about the NSC, believing that during the 100 years it's supposed to last, we will have developed the technology to get rid of the radioactive dust of the Sarcophagus, constantly acumulating, into safe storage, others are against the disassemblance of the broken chimney of Reactor 4, as it in their opinion would destroy the monument of the disaster.

The above mentioned are more or less public matters. Let's move in closer to the Zone. Let's go past Reactor 4 and into Pripyat and its surroundings. Let's re-enter the Jupiter factory, where they once produced tape recorders, and other electronic gear.

When entering the Jupiter factory, I was told it was perfectly safe, but only a few weeks after I had returned to Sweden I was warned about this place:

"Do not go into those places without wearing at least a respiratory mask."

"The water is highly radioactive"

 We have only pieces of information contradicting each other all the time, and that's a reason good enough for anyone interested enough to go there and see with own eyes rather than believe what other people say. Everyone have a different view on this, and focus on different things, but the only way to find out, is to find out by yourselves. I want the entire truth, but still - dont believe everything you read here, because I might be wrong. 

Concerning the Zone only one thing is certain - radiation.. 

 

The Shelter Project

In the late 90's, the Sarcophagus covering the hazardous Reactor 4 began to collapse, and radioactive dust started to leak out through the cracks in the walls. By 1997, the amount of radioactive dust inside the Sarcophagus was measured to 34 tons, and since then, due to the decaying of the active fuel, the amount has increased by several tons per year. Today we may be looking at maybe even more than the double of those 34 tons, and the cracks in the steel and cconcrete construction are even bigger.

The image is from http://www.olek.co.th

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what would happen if the Sarcophagus would collapse, and another big threat is the reactor lid. - 2000 tons were launched at the first explosion, and as it fell down again, it was misaligned (see picture). As also the reactor construction itself decays, it's only a matter of time before it collapses and when the reactor lid falls down, it will cause an enormous amount of radioactive dust to whirl up and get caught by the winds, which would mean contamination of large areas all over again.

In December 1997, the Chernobyl Shelter fund was set up as a collaborative project between Ukraine, Europe and the United Stated in order to finance the construction of the Shelter that will cover the Sarcophagus. This was then estimated to cost €10.5 million, but today the fundings need to be recalculated to estimatedly €1.54 billion. You may read more about the original Shelter funding plans at IAEA's website. Bear in mind that it's an old document. The original intents were for the Shelter to be finished by 2006, but as we clearly can see, that didn't happen. In 2007, the French company Novarka was assigned to build the "2nd Sarcophagus", and how their plans are still supposed to proceed, you can see by watching the video below.

 Today I received an e-mail from mr. Anton Usov, the Ukrainian Principal Adviser of EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) who states that the fund now has collected €600 million and that this amount is sufficient to proceed with the planned engineering work.

"Preparing the New Safe Confinement works is on-going and the first steel elements will be assembled on the site in autumn 2011"

 says Usov. 

After having watched this animated, almost 10 minutes long movie - what do you urban explorers say? "Don't do it, there will be no more Reactor 4 to take pictures of!"? I certainly hope not. The Shelter will of course remove the all too familiar view of the blown off reactor tube, but would you prefer the above mentioned risks?

The new "deadline" for the Shelter is 2015, but optimists claim that this 2nd Sarcophagus might be finished already by 2013.